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Outright Picks 2nd – 9th Feb – ATP Cordoba, ATP Pune, ATP Montpellier.
The Australian Open marked my first foray into outright betting on the blog and you should have come out with some good profit if you followed. Picks last week were mainly based on my tournament model and my individual player ratings and future picks will be using the same process.
Kenin Outright Winner – 50/1, Kenin Win Quarter 2 – 10/1, Halep Win Quarter 3 – 4/1, Dominic Thiem Win Quarter 1 – 6/1.
Outright Picks 2nd – 9th Feb
ATP Cordoba
Fernando Verdasco – 14/1 (Sporting Bet) (12/1 with Skybet)
ATP Montpellier
Pablo Carreno Busta – 22/1 (Skybet)
Filip Krajinovic – 33/1 (Various)
Ugo Humbert – 28/1 (Bet365)
Mikael Ymer – 66/1 (Various)
ATP Pune
Ricardas Berankis – 16/1 (Bet365)
All recommended at level each way stakes. I’ll be logging them at £1 each way for P/L purposes.
Big Bash 23/01/20 Brisbane Heat vs Sydney Sixers Tips
Brisbane Heat vs Sydney Sixers
The Gabba, Brisbane
08:10 (UK TIME) – BT Sport
Over 10.5 Sixes – £20 @ 5/6 (Bet365)
Josh Philippe Under 0.5 Sixes – £10 @ 10/11 (Coral)
Ben Dwarshuis Over 28.5 Player Performance Points – £10 @ 1/1 (Bet365)
Over 10.5 Sixes – Ground average is 11.65 in BBL games. Both the ground and the Heat have been inconsistent in this department but 2/4 have gone over this line. This is a big game, particularly for the Heat and I would expect the big guns (De Villiers in particular) to fire. Steve Smith and Marnus Labuschagne come in for their respective sides after international duties. I would really expect the quality to shine through on this occasion and hit this line.
Josh Philippe Under 0.5 Sixes – Not to say he isn’t a quality player but he averages 0.57 sixes per T20 game. Odds of 10/11 are too big for this and it’s on that basis alone I’m backing this.
Ben Dwarshuis Over 28.5 PPP – Line is bang on but just not sure why he’s 1/1 to go over it – it’s normally 5/6 both sides. He went over this line in the last game too and has done on 5/8 occasions overall (not including the two rain affected games). He’s also scored 22 and 20 PPP on two other occasions. Heat batting order has been frail recently so always in the game for wickets.
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Australian Open – Last Minute Thoughts & Selections.
The 108th edition of the Australian Open gets underway tonight and in true “me” fashion, I’m leaving it to the last minute to get a preview done. Most of these bets mentioned will be available while the day’s play is taking place – although some firms won’t offer Quarter Betting.
ATP
Tournament Winner
At this early stage, there’s three players who stand out at these pre-tournament prices. I can’t be having Djokovic at 5/4, he’s won this competition 7 times and he’s the rightful favourite in that regard but too short for me.
Working on the basis that the “big three” are often on the scene at the business end of these majors – I think Nadal (5/1 – various) and Federer (10/1 – various) offer great value alternatives. I make Nadal an even money shot for his quarter at the most – he’s got a favourable draw even for a seed, worst case scenario would see him face Nick Kyrgios in Round 4 and Dominic Thiem in the Quarter Finals, but I think we should get a deep run for our money – how often can you back the World No.1 at 5/1 for a major?
Federer might be over the hill in some people’s eyes but I’m not ready to turn down 10/1 for the great man. He’s been selectively picking his tournaments the last year or so, this is his first appearance since the World Tour Finals…he’s not what he was but he should be fit and ready to go. Young guns Shapovalov, Berrettini, Coric as well as the likes of Dimitrov and Fognini all reside in his quarter of the draw but when it comes down to it, Roger will be favourite in all of those games and like Nadal, we should get a nice run for our money.
There’s always someone who makes his way quietly through Week 1 and I think that man could be Andrey Rublev (66-1 – 888sport). He’s at a career high singles ranking of 18, he’s fresh off a comprehensive tournament win in Adelaide last week and has a seemingly easy introduction to the competition, facing Christopher O’Connell in R1 and then the winner of Sugita and Bencherit in R2. All going to form, he’ll meet David Goffin in R3 and that will give us an idea of where he’s at in terms of majors.
Quarter Betting
I tend to rely on my ratings and tournament model for these sort of bets as it helps me breakdown the draw sheets and predict who might meet who further down the line. These are my value selections based on actual odds compared to projected. I mentioned I made Nadal an Even money shot for the draw – he’s odds on everywhere so won’t be backing it.
Quarter 1 – Thiem 6/1 (Betfair), Monfils 28/1 (Bet365), Carreno Busta 100/1 (Betfair)
Quarter 2 – Rublev 9/1 (Betfair)
Quarter 3 – Berrettini 8/1 (Betfair)
Quarter 4 – Bautista Agut 20/1 (Bet365), Tsitsipas 6/1 (BetVictor)
WTA
Tournament Winner
I’m not having Serena Williams one bit. She won WTA Auckland singles and got to the final of the doubles but I’m really questioning her stamina these days – I’m not convinced she has back to back tournaments in her these days, never mind a major.
Naomi Osaka (8/1 – various) has long been my selection for this tournament. She might not be World No.1 as things stand but for me she’s the best in the womens game – particularly on hard court. I can’t see too many bumps in the road until the possible quarter final match with Serena Williams which would test my view on both these players.
Ashleigh Barty (8/1 – various) is the current World No.1 and comes into this competition off the back of winning WTA Adelaide last week. It’s her home major and has the added incentive of the bushfire appeal which she has pledged any winnings towards. I expect her to go further than her previous Quarter Final best last year.
Ekaterina Alexandrova (100/1 – Boylesports). Winner in Shenzhen a couple of weeks ago. Only dropped one set in the process and has had an 8 day break since. Might not be her time to win a major but has had perfect preparation and is far too big of a price in my eyes.
Sofia Kenin 50/1 (various), Elina Svitolina 33/1 (SkyBet), Kiki Bertens 55/1 (Unibet), Belinda Bencic 33/1 (various) and Karolina Muchova 80/1 (Bet365) all warrant a look in the outright market for each way backers.
Quarter Betting
As I mentioned above, these are mainly based on my tournament model which works on probability and projected draws. All of the below look like value to me.
Quarter 1 – Alexandrova 12/1 (Various)
Quarter 2 – Osaka 3/1 (Lad/Coral), Kenin 10/1 (Bet365), Q.Wang 33/1 (Lad/Coral)
Quarter 3 – Bencic 9/1 (BetVictor), Halep 4/1 (BoyleSports), Mertens 14/1 (BetVictor)
Quarter 4 – Svitolina 6/1 (BetVictor), Bertens 11/1 (Ladbrokes).
Big Bash 16/01/20 Sydney Sixers vs Hobart Hurricanes Tips
Sydney Sixers vs Hobart Hurricanes
SCG
08:10 (UK TIME) – BT Sport
Qais Ahmad Over 22.5 Player Performance Points – £10 @ 5/6 (Bet365)
Tom Curran Over 1.5 Wickets – £10 @ 9/4 (Coral)
Josh Philippe Under 0.5 Sixes – £10 @ 4/5 (Bet365)
Ben McDermott Under 0.5 Sixes – £10 @ 10/11 (Coral)
Daniel Hughes Under 0.5 Sixes – £10 @ 8/13 (Betfair)
Caleb Jewell Under 0.5 Sixes – £10 @ 1/2 (Betfair)
Qais Ahmad Over 22.5 Player Performance Points – Keeps winning but they keep pricing him at this lowly line. He averages 33.05 in this market which is enough in itself to tip this. He has a wicket (20 points) in 8 of their 9 games with the reduced 11 over a side game the exception, where he bowled 2 overs.
He has got to the crease with the bat on 3 occasions too and it’s likely he will again with their current batting woes. Has an 11 not out this BBL too. Good fielder as well so catches a possibility also – cracking bet.
Tom Curran Over 1.5 Wickets – Doesn’t average 2 wickets per game but averages well over 1 per game (1.21). Hobart have been very patchy with their batting recently so I’m surprised to see these odds. He’ll bowl at the death for sure so if he doesn’t pick up wickets early on – he should have two chances.
Josh Philippe Under 0.5 Sixes – Averages 0.64 sixes per T20. Comes into this game on the back of two failures – seems susceptible to spin so might struggle with Clive Rose early on.
Ben McDermott Under 0.5 Sixes – Averages less than a six per game (0.89). Has been very up and down this BBL – this bet has won in 6 of their 9 games, including in the reverse fixture.
Daniel Hughes Under 0.5 Sixes – Only averages 0.49 sixes per game. Has probably over-performed in this department but I still think is a bet at these odds. He’s struggled at the SCG this year with just 1 in the 3 games so far.
Caleb Jewell Under 0.5 Sixes – Tipped this numerous times and is yet to let me down. He’s hit just 3 sixes in 18 T20 matches – that’s an average of just 0.17 per game. It’s no price but it’s still value based on the evidence.
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Big Bash 15/01/20 Perth Scorchers vs Melbourne Stars Tips
Perth Scorchers vs Melbourne Stars
Optus Stadium
10:10 (UK TIME) – BT Sport
Jhye Richardson Over 23.5 Player Performance Points – £10 @ 5/6 (Bet365)
Glenn Maxwell Over 36.5 Player Performance Points – £10 @ 5/6 (Bet365)
Under 14.5 Sixes – £10 @ 5/6 (Bet365)
Jhye Richardson Over 22.5 Player Performance Points – Keeps winning so I’ll keep tipping. Now averages 31.23 in this market, well above the line required. Won in 7/9 games this BBL – in the last game he took 2 wickets in his first over.
Glenn Maxwell Over 36.5 Player Performance Points – Averages 34.87 in this market but is in top form. Has won in 7/9 Stars games this BBL – 5 of those 7 occasions he won this with the bat alone, the other 2 with the ball. Big game player, who is capable of runs, wickets and catches.
Under 14.5 Sixes – Some big hitters on show but think this line is a bit of an overreaction. Optus averages 12.87 sixes per game, just 4/11 games have gone over this line.
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Big Bash 13/01/20 Hobart Hurricanes vs Perth Scorchers Tips
Hobart Hurricanes vs Perth Scorchers
Blundstone Arena, Hobart
08:10 (UK TIME) – BT Sport
Qais Ahmad Over 22.5 Player Performance Points – £20 @ 8/11 (Bet365)
Jhye Richardson Over 22.5 Player Performance Points – £20 @ 5/6 (Bet365)
Mitchell Marsh Over 30.5 Player Performance Points – £20 @ 4/6 (Bet365)
Caleb Jewell Under 0.5 Sixes – £20 @ 8/13 (Betfair)
Qais Ahmad Over 22.5 Player Performance Points – Keeps winning but they keep pricing him at this lowly line. He averages 33.05 in this market which is enough in itself to tip this. He has a wicket (20 points) in 7 of their 8 games with the reduced 11 over a side game the exception, where he bowled 2 overs.
He has got to the crease with the bat on 3 occasions too and it’s likely he will again with their current batting woes. Has an 11 not out this BBL too. Good fielder as well so catches a possibility also – cracking bet.
Jhye Richardson Over 22.5 Player Performance Points – Averages 29.97 in this market. Won in 6/8 Scorchers game this season. Has improved his batting too, scored 33* a few games ago, so if he doesn’t get wickets there’s always an outside chance of runs. Got 2 wickets last game, 3 in the game before that.
Mitchell Marsh Over 30.5 Player Performance Points – Now averages 37.00 in this market in T20 cricket after his terrific 93* last game (plus a catch). They’ve altered the price to 4/6 from 5/6 in that game but this has never really been a price based selection – it’s very much on the fact the line is far too low.
Has won this market with his batting alone in 4/8 games this BBL. Has bowled sporadically this term but took 2-21 a couple of games ago so likely he’ll bowl himself again here – he didn’t pick up a wicket last time out but did bowl. Fields in key areas so a catch always possible too.
Caleb Jewell Under 0.5 Sixes – Tipped this numerous times and is yet to let me down. He’s hit just 3 sixes in 17 T20 matches – that’s an average of just 0.18 per game. It’s no price but it’s still value based on the evidence.
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Big Bash 10/01/20 Double Header Tips
Sydney Thunder vs Hobart Hurricanes
Sydney Showground
07:10 (UK TIME) – BT Sport
Sydney Thunder Win – £20 @ 8/11 (William Hill)
Over 8.5 Sixes – £20 @ 5/6 (Spreadex)
Qais Ahmad Over 21.5 Player Performance Points – £20 @ 5/6 (Bet365)
Sydney Thunder To Win – I wasn’t sold on Sydney at the start of this competition but I think they’ve got enough to win here. Both sides have won 3 games with Sydney playing a game more and crucially Hobart have key players missing.
D’Arcy Short is off to India with the International squad and while Matthew Wade is a like for like replacement it does still leave them a bit light up top. He scored 61 of the 126-9 they struggled to in their last game vs Brisbane, albeit it on a sticky wicket. Top wicket-tacker Riley Meredith is a doubt through injury.
Chris Green is banned for the Thunder which is a loss but I think they have enough to win here.
Over 8.5 Sixes – Ground average is 10.11. combined expected averages for the two sides is 10.90 and 10.12. Hobart have the highest average count for sixes in away games (11.70) – although this is probably likely to be lower due to their depleted side. Only game there this season ended with 5 but early Sydney wickets killed their effort in the first innings and the Stars took few risks in a low run chase. I’d expect more here.
Qais Ahmad Over 21.5 Player Performance Points – Ludicrous line yet again. He averages 32.88 in this market which is enough in itself to tip this. He has a wicket (20 points) in 6 of their 7 games with the reduced 11 over a side game the exception, where he bowled 2 overs.
He has got to the crease with the bat on 3 occasions too and it’s likely he will again with their current batting woes. He scored the 2 runs + a wicket to win this in the last game and also has an 11 not out this BBL too. Good fielder as well so catches a possibility also – cracking bet.
Perth Scorchers vs Brisbane Heat
Optus Stadium, Perth
10:10 (UK TIME) – BT Sport
Jhye Richardson Over 22.5 Player Performance Points – £20 @ 5/6 (Bet365)
Mitchell Marsh Over 30.5 Player Performance Points – £20 @ 5/6 (Bet365)
1st Over Score Over 5.5 – £10 @ 10/11 (Betfair)
Jhye Richardson Over 22.5 Player Performance Points – Averages 30.32 in this market. Won in 5/7 Scorchers game this season. Has improved his batting too, scored 33* a couple of games ago, so if he doesn’t get wickets there’s always an outside chance of runs. Got 3 wickets last game.
Mitchell Marsh Over 30.5 Player Performance Points – Average 36.28 in this market in T20 cricket. Has won this market with his batting alone in 3/7 games this BBL. Has bowled sporadically this term but took 2-21 last game so likely he’ll bowl himself again here. Fields in key areas so a catch always possible too.
1st Over Score Over 5.5 – Most of the time this would be an absolute stab in the dark but with these two sides it has legs. Both sets of openers go at it from ball 1. 5/7 Scorchers innings have gone over this line, 4/7 for the Heat which is enough for me. Neither side has a star opening bowler – this has every chance at this price.
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Big Bash 08/01/20 – Big Bash Double Header Tips
Adelaide Strikers vs Sydney Sixers
Adelaide Oval
04:40 (UK TIME) – BT Sport
Over 10.5 Sixes – £20 @ 5/6 (Betfair/Paddy’s)
Over 10.5 Sixes – Ground average is 11.23. The two games at the venue this season have seen 15 and 12 sixes with Adelaide responsible for 6 and 9 in those respective games. Sydney Sixers haven’t always lived up to their franchise name of power hitters but the elevation of Justin Avendano to opening last game really seemed to kickstart attacking intent in their innings. The way this wicket has been playing I wouldn’t be surprised to see another high scoring game. Industry line is generally 11.5/12.5.
Melbourne Stars vs Sydney Thunder
MCG
08:10 (UK TIME) – BT Sport
Under 9.5 Sixes – £20 @ 8/11 (Coral/Lads)
Callum Ferguson Under 0.5 Sixes – £10 @ 8/11 (Coral/Lads)
Usman Khawaja Under 0.5 Sixes – £10 @ 8/13 (Coral/Lads)
Daniel Sams Over 1.5 Wickets – £10 @ 9/4 (Coral/Lads)
Under 9.5 Sixes – Won easily in the game here just a few days ago. If this game isn’t played on the same wicket it will be one either side so we can be confident there won’t be a short boundary. The ground average is just 7.64 – just 16/53 T20s at this ground have gone over 9.5.
Callum Ferguson Under 0.5 Sixes/Usman Khawaja Under 0.5 Sixes – Both prices seem too big, although still quite short. We’ve established it’s not a ground for high six tally’s so I would have expected both of these players to be shorter – they both average less than a six every other game (0.49 and 0.48 per game respectively).
Daniel Sams Over 1.5 Wickets – Has 14 wickets in their 7 games so far and is top wicket taker in the tournament thus far. Bowls at the death so chances for wickets. Not sure why his price is so much bigger than the other bowlers.
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07/01/20 – India vs Sri Lanka 2nd T20i Tip
Over 11.5 Sixes – £30 @ 1/2 (Bet365)
Over 11.5 Sixes – £30 @ 1/2 (Bet365) – This game is being played at Indore. Cracking wicket and a ground that averages 17.56 sixes per T20 game.
There has been 9 T20s at this venue, 8 in the IPL and 1 International. 6/9 games have gone Over 11.5 but with comfortable tallies – 17, 16, 20, 24, 31 and 25 with one also ending on 11. The only T20I was between these two sides in Dec 2017 and ended with 31 sixes.
If India bat first, I can’t see this one losing but we’ve got a very solid chance either way. Both sides have explosive players and the away side in particular have improved in this six hitting department.
Big Bash 07/01/20 – Melbourne Renegades vs Perth Scorchers Tips
Melbourne Renegades vs Perth Scorchers
Geelong
08:10 (UK TIME) – BT Sport
Perth Scorchers Win – £10 @ 1/1 – Various
Under 11.5 Sixes – £10 @ 8/11 – William Hill
Jhye Richardson Over 22.5 Player Performance Points – £10 @ 5/6 – Bet365
Cameron Boyce Over 24.5 Player Performance Points – £10 @ 1/1 – Bet365
Sam Harper Over 25.5 Player Performance Points – £10 @ 8/11 – Bet365
Liam Livingstone Over 0.5 Sixes – £10 @ 1/1 – Betfair ***
Perth Scorchers To Win – Both of these sides have been very disappointing but Perth did win the fixture at the Optus Stadium. The Renegades are still winless and to be honest, haven’t looked like winning in recent games. They’ve lost 3/4 games at Geelong.
Under 11.5 Sixes – Ground average is just 8.50 sixes in BBL cricket. 9.00 in all T20 cricket. 4/6 T20s at Geelong have gone under this line.
Jhye Richardson Over 22.5 PPP – Averages 28.89 in this market. Won in 4/6 Scorchers game this season. Has improved his batting too, scored 33* in the last game so if he doesn’t get wickets there’s always an outside chance of runs.
Cameron Boyce Over 24.5 PPP – Has won in 3/6 games this BBL – didn’t have the best time of it in the game at Geelong but I think the spinners could have a good time of it tomorrow. Has been batting slightly higher up due to their long tail and has seen plenty of time at the crease due to their poor performances.
Sam Harper Over 25.5 PPP – Has had a poor time of it with the bat recently so is definitely due a score. Perth have struggled with early wickets at times (Hobart put 80+ odd on for the first wicket) so could capitalise and he did score 39 in the game at Geelong in December. 25.5 is low for a wicket-keeper who opens the batting with stumpings and catches a possibility until the last ball.
Liam Livingstone Over 0.5 Sixes – It’s not been winning for us in the last couple of games but it’s wrong price again from Betfair. Averages 1.26 sixes per T20 game (115 sixes in 91 games). Have to bet it at this price. Coral are 8/15.
**Edit: Betfair have cut to 1.73 – no bet at this price.
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Trader 12 - Blog and Tips. 