Brisbane Heat vs Perth Scorchers

Metricon Stadium, Carrara
08:10 (UK TIME) – BT Sport

Over 12.5 Sixes – £20 @ 1/1 (BF/PP)

Over 12.5 Sixes – £20 @ 1/1 – Wouldn’t say the line is wrong, I’d have been 12.5 too but personnel wise this should go over this line. We’ve seen 11 and 12 sixes in the two games at Metricon this season and there are some real trump cards in these line ups…so I would expect this game to be higher than those. Lynn hit 9 sixes in his last innings, Marsh hit 6 vs Renegades, Liam Livingstone 7 vs Adelaide and Tom Banton 4 in his last innings vs Melbourne Stars – if one of these lads gets going like this it will go a long way to breaking the back of the tally.

For all P/L on cricket visit: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12jJxMTWk2n0ticEkavYA-GMu9nJlddd4sDptB4nZ1p4/edit#gid=1513194302

Staking Plan ranges from £5 to maximum stake of £30. 

Sydney Sixers vs Sydney Thunder

SCG, Sydney
08:10 (UK TIME) – BT Sport

Over 8.5 Sixes – £30 @ 5/6 (Bet365)

Over 8.5 Sixes – £30 @ 5/6 (Bet365) – Far too low this line in my opinion. Although the ground average is 8.65 (so favouring 9 over 8) the last game vs Brisbane Heat ended with 20 sixes just a few days ago. The combined averages suggest this should go 9+, my line was 9.5 at least. It’s a max stakes selection for me.

For all P/L on cricket visit: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12jJxMTWk2n0ticEkavYA-GMu9nJlddd4sDptB4nZ1p4/edit#gid=1513194302

Staking Plan ranges from £5 to maximum stake of £30. 

Melbourne Stars vs Adelaide Strikers

Metricon Stadium, Carrara
08:10 (UK TIME) – BT Sport

Phil Salt Under 0.5 Sixes – £10 @ 4/5 (Coral)

Nic Maddinson Under 0.5 Sixes – £10 @ 1/1 (Betfair)

Marcus Stoinis Under 0.5 Sixes – £10 @ 10/11 (Betfair)

Phil Salt Under 0.5 Sixes – £10 @ 4/5 (Coral) – Hasn’t got going at all in this BBL  – 0 and 2 in his innings so far. Averages less than a six per game (0.79) and is also likely to be facing up to Dale Steyn opening the bowling.

Nic Maddinson Under 0.5 Sixes – £10 @ 1/1 (Betfair) – In some decent form but think his six hitting is overestimated a touch with these odds – averages less than a six per game (0.79 also). Scored a run a ball 40 without a six last game, did however hit one in their opening game. Evs too big though.

Marcus Stoinis Under 0.5 Sixes – £10 @ 10/11 (Betfair) – Another price a little too big in my opinion. He’s a top player as we saw in his 81* (4 sixes) in their last game but overall his 6 hitting record isn’t that prolific – he averages just 0.53 sixes. He can be a slow starter (as we saw in their opener) and I think he might struggle against this particular line up.

For all P/L on cricket visit: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12jJxMTWk2n0ticEkavYA-GMu9nJlddd4sDptB4nZ1p4/edit#gid=1513194302

Staking Plan ranges from £5 to maximum stake of £30. 

Perth Scorchers vs Sydney Sixers

Optus Stadium, Perth
08:10 (UK TIME) – BT Sport

Perth Scorchers Most Sixes – £20 @ 1/1 (Various)

Liam Livingstone Over 0.5 Sixes – £10 @ 1/1 (Betfair)

Daniel Hughes Under 0.5 Sixes – £10 @ 8/13 (Betfair)

Josh Phillipe Under 0.5 Sixes – £10 @ 10/11 (Coral)

Sean Abbott Over 29.5 Player Performance Points – £20 @ 5/6 (Bet365)

Perth Scorchers Most Sixes – £20 @ 1/1 (Various) – Taken a while to get going but feel they seem to be warming into the comp. They hit 11 sixes when winning this market vs Renegades at this ground just a few days ago and then followed that up with a further 9 at Adelaide when again winning this market. Since these two met in Game 2, Sydney have scored 4 and 5 sixes in their two games since, losing this market on 1/2 occasions.

Liam Livingstone Over 0.5 Sixes – £10 @ Evs (Betfair) – Averages 1.37 sixes per game. Scored 7 sixes in his last game, 2 in the game before that. Total wrong price.

Under 0.5 Sixes is 6/5 with Coral so any big stakers can get a free bet on that selection by backing both, if that way inclined. 

---

Daniel Hughes Under 0.5 Sixes –  £10 @ 8/13 (Betfair) – Not had a great BBL so far, scored 22 in the Sixers opening game (hitting 1 six) followed by two failures (2 and 8). Only averages 0.49 sixes per game anyway so even if he does get in, not a guarantee to hit a six. As short as 4/11 in places.

Josh Phillipe Under 0.5 Sixes – £10 @ 10/11 (Coral) – Started off the BBL with a blistering 81 and then followed it up with two fair scores of 24 and 15. He’s hit a six in 2/3 innings but I just saw signs of struggle in his last innings which was on a good wicket. Dangerous to say he’s a due a failure but he is. He averages just 0.58 sixes per game too so we’re getting a fair price considering he’s a lot shorter with other bookies.

Sean Abbott Over 29.5 Player Performance – £20 @ 5/6 (Bet365) – Averages 35.49 for T20s in this Player Performance market – that means he averages at least a wicket (20 points) and a catch (10 points) at the very minimum, which would do us here. He averages 10.23 with the bat as well so offers a viable option to top up his PPP score if he does get to the crease.

For all P/L on cricket visit: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12jJxMTWk2n0ticEkavYA-GMu9nJlddd4sDptB4nZ1p4/edit#gid=1513194302

Staking Plan ranges from £5 to maximum stake of £30. 

Adelaide Strikers vs Perth Scorchers

Adelaide Oval
08:10 (UK TIME)

Under 12.5 Sixes – £10 @ 4/5 (Betfair)

Phil Salt Under 0.5 Sixes – £10 @ 4/5 (Bet365)

Ashton Turner Under 0.5 Sixes – £10 @ 5/6 (Coral) 

Under 12.5 Sixes – £10 @ 4/5 (Betfair) – I made the line for this game 10.5, perhaps 11.5 at a push (general industry line) but I think 12.5 is too high. The ground averages 11.16 sixes in T20 cricket, 11.10 in the last 3 seasons. Combined averages for the two sides churn out figures around 9.80 – 10.20 so I make this a play.

Phil Salt Under 0.5 Sixes – £10 @ 4/5 (Bet365) – Not been in the best of form recently – scored a 5 ball duck in their opening game. Averages 0.80 sixes per game. 

Ashton Turner Under 0.5 Sixes – £10 @ 5/6 (Coral) – I like opposing Turner in games away from Perth. He has been in awful form recently although did get a score last game which included a six (at Perth). This bet won in the first game and I fancy it again here. 

For all P/L on cricket visit: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12jJxMTWk2n0ticEkavYA-GMu9nJlddd4sDptB4nZ1p4/edit#gid=1513194302

Staking Plan ranges from £5 to maximum stake of £30. 

Melbourne Stars vs Hobart Hurricanes

Ted Summerton Reserve, Moe
03:45 (UK TIME) – BT Sport

Under 12.5 Sixes –  £20 @ 10/11 (Coral) 

Qais Ahmad Over 24.5 Player Performance Points – £10 @ 5/6 (Bet365). 

Under 12.5 Sixes –  £20 @ 10/11 (Coral)  – Just the second BBL game to be played at the Ted Summerton Reserve, the first game was in last year’s edition when the Stars hosted the Strikers in January – that game ended with 5 sixes. This is a big ground and it’s going to take some doing to clear the ropes on the regular. Industry split at 11.5 and 12.5 but my projected line was below even that so this is a bet.

Qais Ahmad Over 24.5 Player Performance Points – £10 @ 5/6 (Bet365) – Said in my write up for his first game on Friday that this line is wrong. He averages 34.83 Player Performance Points per T20. He got 4 wickets in that game and 7 runs, totalling 87 PPP’s. Has won in all 5 games he’s played in the Big Bash.

---

Sydney Sixers vs Brisbane Heat

Sydney Cricket Ground
08:10 (UK TIME) – BT Sport

Sean Abbott Over 28.5 Player Performance – £20 @ 5/6 (Bet365)

Sean Abbott Over 28.5 Player Performance – £20 @ 5/6 (Bet365) – Much like the Qais Ahmad tip it’s a similar story here – he averages 34 for T20s in this Player Performance market – that means he averages at least a wicket and a catch at the very minimum, which would do us here. If his line was 30+ we’d need a wicket and 2 catches, 2 wickets etc so with the line being lower than that it’s a no brainer. He averages 10 with the bat so if he does get a chance down the order we’d be in the running with that too.

For all P/L on cricket visit: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12jJxMTWk2n0ticEkavYA-GMu9nJlddd4sDptB4nZ1p4/edit#gid=1513194302

Staking Plan ranges from £5 to maximum stake of £30. 

Sydney Thunder vs Adelaide Strikers

Canberra
07:10 (UK TIME) – BT Sport

Under 12.5 Sixes –  £20 @ 10/11 (Coral) 

Under 12.5 Sixes –  £20 @ 10/11 (Coral)  – Industry appears to be favouring Under 11.5 at shorter prices than we’re getting here for a higher line. 3 of the 4 T20s at this venue have finished under this line – the most recent being Aus vs Pak just last month, which ended with 4 sixes. Both Thunder games have gone under this line also.

---

Perth Scorchers vs Melbourne Renegades

Optus Stadium, Perth
10:10 (UK TIME) – BT Sport

Melbourne Renegades to beat Perth Scorchers –  £20 @ 5/6 (Betfair)

Over 10.5 Sixes – £20 @ 10/11 (Coral)

Melbourne Renegades to beat Perth Scorchers –  £20 @ 5/6 (Betfair) – Renegades have the best away record in the Big Bash (58% win rate) and I think they were a little unlucky in defeat against Sydney Thunder the other day. Perth showed their frailties in their opener against the same opponent, losing comfortably. They’ve lost plenty of players from last season and the new players will take a while to gel – I think the Renegades are the play.

Over 10.5 Sixes – £20 @ 10/11 (Coral) – Ground average is 10.71 in Big Bash cricket at Optus. Tipped Renegades Most Sixes in their last game when they won this market 5-3 and a few of the players I expected to fire, didn’t. That was on a ground that had a much lower average than this one and I think they might fare better here against this attack. Livingstone leads the prospects for six hitting in the Perth ranks but isn’t alone with plenty more than capable.

For all P/L on cricket visit: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12jJxMTWk2n0ticEkavYA-GMu9nJlddd4sDptB4nZ1p4/edit#gid=1513194302

Staking Plan ranges from £5 to maximum stake of £30. 

Hobart Hurricanes vs Sydney Sixers

Alice Springs
03:45 (UK TIME) – BT Sport

Sydney Sixers to beat Hobart Hurricanes – £10 @ 1/1 (Various) 

Over 9.5 Sixes – £20 @ 10/11 (Coral)

Caleb Jewell Under 0.5 Sixes – £20 @ 4/6 (Betfair)

Qais Ahmad Over 24.5 Player Performance Points – £10 @ 1/1 (Bet365)

Sydney Sixers to beat Hobart Hurricanes – £10 @ 1/1 (Various)  – Although listed as a home fixture, this is far from it for Hobart. Alice Springs is in Northern Territories – far away from Tasmania. Looking at both sides away records, Sixers have a far superior percentage (52.63%) compared to that of Hobart (44.74%). The Sixers produced a very impressive performance in sweeping aside Perth on Wednesday and will welcome a quick turnaround with momentum so important. H2H is 5-5 and the odds do suggest it’s going to be a close one but I fancy Sydney to pinch this one.

Over 9.5 Sixes – £20 @ 10/11 (Coral) – Only one previous BBL game at this venue (ended with 6) so no sample size to use stats with this one but looking at these line ups there surely has to be sixes flying around here. Short, Miller, McDermott, Philippe, Hughes etc are all capable of making a hole in this total and the most recent picture I saw of the ground suggest the wicket could be a belter.

Caleb Jewell Under 0.5 Sixes – £20 @ 4/6 (Betfair) – Not sure this price is correct. Second season in BBL cricket for this 22 year old. He started off the domestic 4 day campaign in good form but his form has dropped off a cliff with scores of 14, 10, 24, 3, 8, 9, 1 and most recently 3. Averages 0.22 sixes per T20 innings – it’s a bet at these odds.

Qais Ahmad Over 24.5 Player Performance Points – £10 @ 1/1 (Bet365) – This is the wrong line for him. He currently averages 33.46 in this market in T20 cricket. He averages well over a wicket per game (1.26), has a useful batting average of 14.25 if required and can always pick up a catch here and there. Won this market in all 3 BBL games he played last season. (Market = 20 for a wicket, 10 for a catch, 1 per run). 

---

Brisbane Heat vs Melbourne Stars

Metricon Stadium, Canberra
08:10 (UK TIME) – BT Sport

Ben Laughlin Over 20.5 Player Performance Points – £20 @ 5/6 (Betfair)

Ben Laughlin Over 20.5 Player Performance Points – £20 @ 5/6 (Betfair) – Laughlin averages 28.48 PPP per T20 match. He averages a healthy 1.22 wickets per game and this tournament is by far is best in terms of performance. He won this market in the opening game vs Sydney Thunder with one wicket and bonus of 7 runs. If the Heat bat like they did in the last game there’s every chance he could get a bat again and it might be a case of just needing those 2 runs (if he gets a wicket). (Market = 20 for a wicket, 10 for a catch, 1 per run). 

For all P/L on cricket visit: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12jJxMTWk2n0ticEkavYA-GMu9nJlddd4sDptB4nZ1p4/edit#gid=1513194302

Staking Plan ranges from £5 to maximum stake of £30. 

Melbourne Renegades vs Sydney Thunder

GMBHA Stadium, Geelong
08:10 (UK TIME)

Melbourne Renegades to Win – £20 @ 8/11 (Various)

Melbourne Renegades to Hit Most 6s – £10 @ 5/6 (Spreadex)

This game is being played up in Geelong instead of the Marvel Stadium so I don’t really want to get too heavily involved in six hitting markets etc without reliable statistics. However, having looked at these line ups I do think there is a stand out selection in the sixes market.

Melbourne Renegades to Hit Most 6s – Sydney Thunder did beat Brisbane at the Gabba on Tuesday but comprehensively lost this market 8-4. The Renegades, like Brisbane, have power hitters in their side – most notably Aaron Finch and Shaun Marsh. Sam Harper proved to be a useful hitter despite his small stature last season and Dan Christian offers useful firepower in the middle order and comparing the two sides they have more avenues for sixes.

Sydney have an inexperienced bowling line up including three spinners, Arjun Nair, Chris Green and Jono Cook and no real experienced pace options either and I’d expect at least one or two of those to have a bad day.

It’s the inexperienced bowling line up which leads me onto my second and final tip, Melbourne Renegades to Win – £20 @ 8/11 (Various). Let’s remember that Melbourne won this competition last season and have a pretty similar side this year.

Finch has been in supreme form for Australia and very rarely fails for the Renegades so when you add in last years top wicket-taker Kane Richardson (24 wickets), world class all rounder Mohammed Nabi and experienced T20 players Gurney, Cooper, Christian and Cam Boyce it makes for a much more attractive line up than that of the visiting side, in my opinion.

For all P/L on cricket visit: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12jJxMTWk2n0ticEkavYA-GMu9nJlddd4sDptB4nZ1p4/edit#gid=1513194302

Staking Plan ranges from £5 to maximum stake of £30. 

Sydney Sixers vs Perth Scorchers

Sydney Cricket Ground
08:10 (UK TIME)

Liam Livingstone Over 0.5 Sixes – £10 @ 1/1 (Bet365) – Livingstone averages 1.25 sixes per T20 innings (106 in 85 games) so evens is statistically the wrong price for a player who had a good MSL in South Africa.

Who Will Score More Runs On Handicap? James Vince vs Ashton Turner – James Vince -2.5 – £10 @ 5/6 (Coral) – Vince is another who had a relatively good MSL in South Africa, he’s moulded himself into a decent T20 player and should have the better of Turner, who looks out of sorts in the Sheffield Shield at the moment.

Ashton Turner Under 0.5 Sixes – £20 @ 8/13 (Coral) – As I mentioned, he’s not been in the best form of late. He’s not known as a power hitter and averages well under a six per game (0.62 per game). Slim price but on a big ground I think it’s a bet.

Total Sydney Sixers 6s – Over 3.5 – £20 @ 4/5 (Bet 365) – 3.5 looks a little low. Although the line for the whole game is 8.5 the Sixers average 3.73 sixes at this ground and the Scorchers have a much changed line up (in terms of absences/new signings from last season) – I personally think they look weaker.

(Added 20:23) Sean Abbott To Score 10 Runs – £5 @ 5/1 (Betfair) – New market which I’ve not seen before so staking small as very much an experiment. Abbott averages 10.23 in T20 cricket but is improving as a batsman – scored 86 and 56 in his last two Sheffield Shield (4 Day) games. He’s scored 2, 17, 24, 20, 3 and 26 in his innings before that so he’s more than capable in the shorter format. We lose if he bats and doesn’t make it but if he’s given the chance 5/1 seems like very reasonable value.

For all P/L on cricket visit: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12jJxMTWk2n0ticEkavYA-GMu9nJlddd4sDptB4nZ1p4/edit#gid=1513194302

Staking Plan ranges from £5 to maximum stake of £30.