The 108th edition of the Australian Open gets underway tonight and in true “me” fashion, I’m leaving it to the last minute to get a preview done. Most of these bets mentioned will be available while the day’s play is taking place – although some firms won’t offer Quarter Betting.

ATP

Tournament Winner 

At this early stage, there’s three players who stand out at these pre-tournament prices. I can’t be having Djokovic at 5/4, he’s won this competition 7 times and he’s the rightful favourite in that regard but too short for me.

Working on the basis that the “big three” are often on the scene at the business end of these majors – I think Nadal (5/1 – various) and Federer (10/1 – various) offer great value alternatives. I make Nadal an even money shot for his quarter at the most – he’s got a favourable draw even for a seed, worst case scenario would see him face Nick Kyrgios in Round 4 and Dominic Thiem in the Quarter Finals, but I think we should get a deep run for our money – how often can you back the World No.1 at 5/1 for a major?

Federer might be over the hill in some people’s eyes but I’m not ready to turn down 10/1 for the great man. He’s been selectively picking his tournaments the last year or so, this is his first appearance since the World Tour Finals…he’s not what he was but he should be fit and ready to go. Young guns Shapovalov, Berrettini, Coric as well as the likes of Dimitrov and Fognini all reside in his quarter of the draw but when it comes down to it, Roger will be favourite in all of those games and like Nadal, we should get a nice run for our money.

There’s always someone who makes his way quietly through Week 1 and I think that man could be Andrey Rublev (66-1 – 888sport). He’s at a career high singles ranking of 18, he’s fresh off a comprehensive tournament win in Adelaide last week and has a seemingly easy introduction to the competition, facing Christopher O’Connell in R1 and then the winner of Sugita and Bencherit in R2. All going to form, he’ll meet David Goffin in R3 and that will give us an idea of where he’s at in terms of majors.

Quarter Betting

I tend to rely on my ratings and tournament model for these sort of bets as it helps me breakdown the draw sheets and predict who might meet who further down the line. These are my value selections based on actual odds compared to projected. I mentioned I made Nadal an Even money shot for the draw – he’s odds on everywhere so won’t be backing it.

Quarter 1 – Thiem 6/1 (Betfair), Monfils 28/1 (Bet365), Carreno Busta 100/1 (Betfair)

Quarter 2 – Rublev 9/1 (Betfair)

Quarter 3 – Berrettini 8/1 (Betfair) 

Quarter 4 – Bautista Agut 20/1 (Bet365), Tsitsipas 6/1 (BetVictor)

---

WTA

Tournament Winner

I’m not having Serena Williams one bit. She won WTA Auckland singles and got to the final of the doubles but I’m really questioning her stamina these days – I’m not convinced she has back to back tournaments in her these days, never mind a major.

Naomi Osaka (8/1 – various) has long been my selection for this tournament. She might not be World No.1 as things stand but for me she’s the best in the womens game – particularly on hard court. I can’t see too many bumps in the road until the possible quarter final match with Serena Williams which would test my view on both these players.

Ashleigh Barty (8/1 – various) is the current World No.1 and comes into this competition off the back of winning WTA Adelaide last week. It’s her home major and has the added incentive of the bushfire appeal which she has pledged any winnings towards. I expect her to go further than her previous Quarter Final best last year.

Ekaterina Alexandrova (100/1 – Boylesports). Winner in Shenzhen a couple of weeks ago. Only dropped one set in the process and has had an 8 day break since. Might not be her time to win a major but has had perfect preparation and is far too big of a price in my eyes.

Sofia Kenin 50/1 (various), Elina Svitolina 33/1 (SkyBet), Kiki Bertens 55/1 (Unibet), Belinda Bencic 33/1 (various) and Karolina Muchova 80/1 (Bet365) all warrant a look in the outright market for each way backers.

Quarter Betting

As I mentioned above, these are mainly based on my tournament model which works on probability and projected draws. All of the below look like value to me.

Quarter 1 – Alexandrova 12/1 (Various)

Quarter 2 – Osaka 3/1 (Lad/Coral), Kenin 10/1 (Bet365), Q.Wang 33/1 (Lad/Coral)

Quarter 3 – Bencic 9/1 (BetVictor), Halep 4/1 (BoyleSports), Mertens 14/1 (BetVictor) 

Quarter 4 – Svitolina 6/1 (BetVictor), Bertens 11/1 (Ladbrokes).